There's a moment in every system design discussion where someone has to answer "okay, but will it actually handle that?" — and the people who freeze are the ones who never learned to estimate. Back-of-the-envelope math has a reputation for being scary, but it's genuinely just multiplication with round numbers. This post covers how I do quick capacity estimates, plus the four-step framework I use to keep a design conversation from turning into a rambling mess.
This is part two of my system design fundamentals series. Part one covered scaling, latency, and availability, which you'll want in your head for the estimation part.

